RE:exactlyI am reminded of one Jeff Rubin, former Chief Economist of CIBC WM, who quit the firm saying oil would go to $200 (pre 'Shale Revolution'), and now is saying $20 is not impossible (on storage concerns).
Short answer: nobody knows. We've never been in a 'cartel'-less situation before.
Now we get find out what the real price of the thing is. But be warned: Saudi Arabia is not long for this world. That country is as close as one gets to the biblical 'Abomination that Causes Desolation', and someone will wreck it out of spite.