RE:RE:RE:RE:Selling (looks) done...Thanks Knicks for the margin numbers!
Knicks, ch4rt, my thoughts below, care to comment if agree or disagree?
Currently, total risk of the company hinges on one large contract.
The company appears to have eradicated travel expense abuse. They appear to have launched a superior product in a total and individual sense. They have a giant sector, which operates with safe clients on a global landscape. They have a CEO who is a turnaround specialist. They have Vertex who will keep funding the company if need be as incentive to get their royalty.
What they don't have is market confidence that the Orion is what they claim it to be: A Superior and heavily needed complete geospatial suite.
They don't have market confidence that 70% revenues from outside USA is safe.
They don't have market confidence that SG&A and below line items will not eat into gross operating margins.
They may not have market confidence that their intangibles are fairly valued and safe of any impairment.
One significant contract signing and completion eliminates these risks, and market will re-adopt it back into it's good graces. And in these 'prove it or lose it' situations, time is the biggest risk.
And that's the bet. Pipeline will follow, and even if only 10% of pipeline can be signed under contract (which could be on one medium-high valued contract), then we should see positive EPS around .20/share, after royalty.
It's tough to say for certain how many shares Canaccord has been left with after their 100+ million financed in bought deals over the past decade, since they were able to distribute quite a few during the runup in the early years via heavy block trade activity. However, it's more clear with RJ that they financed at the wrong time and were left with risk that rapidly became unpurchaseable. Canaccord may have already been able to disippate large holdings, possibly sold many on the downturn, which you can see in total Anon activity during the collapse. But RJ held tight and potentially bought out Canaccord/Orion from the financing, the share count fits with their selling volume this year. So maybe RJ is done now. 085 and 002 stepped in on friday selling small amounts, we will see going forward if that was part of a larger position or just a one off.
Invesco, SSF, and Vertex have their shares stowed away for the end goal, so that is nearly half of the company float. Another 5-10 million nat least I am sure is in the hands of stronghands, plus a few million inm insider ownership, plus Vertex is working on dropping the f.d. share count nicely, . The runway is clearing so it appears.