RE:RE:News Release just out this morningFurther to my original post - Additional thoughts:
NEUTRAL:
1. Revised Bids - We don't know if these got stronger because of the bidding competition OR weaker because of the situation the company finds itself in OR a mix of both.
Additional thoughts:
1. The 50 and 200 DMA are at .09 - It is not unreasonable for a buyout price for between 150% to 400% above this.
Original S/P predction was .25 to .35
Revised S/ prediction is .20 to .30
Any thing is possible with multiple bids.
2. My bias is now leaning towards a stratgic partner being the outcome vs. a full buyout for the following reasons:
A) Management, the BOD and likely the lenders have preferred this outcome - They are all shareholders and believe that any buyout would be at a signficant discount to the true future value of MBAC as a cash flow positive company.
B) Majors prefer to initiate a joint position first - reduce risk then take full control later.
C) The AGM Materials - Strategy & Outlook Section. As mentioned here previously there is some fortelling there about how ITAFOS / MBAC will operate in the future. A future that wouldn't happen in buyout scenario.
D) June 15th NR - The upfront emphasis of this statement:
"Upon final settlement the chosen proposal is expected to address MBAC's liquidity requirements together with all other issues described below and result in the resumption of operations at its Itafós Arraias Operations"