We can only speculate what the intentions are.
O'Hara knew already that the NO prevails. If the idea was just to undermine the transaction at the offered price they knew they got it. Then why all the pump around it? To make ALFA scared and raise the bid.May be. Well...in a billion dollars transactions people don't usually throw words out, every word is checked many times. Especially, in a written form. ALFA said it was FAIR and FINAL. And in in my humble opinion it IS more or less fair taking into account ~$700-800M losses in the Q1. So, what are the chances for ALFA to up the bid? After they said it was fair and final. If they do they'll passively admit that the previous offer ($6.50) was a rip-off and they , in fact , are bad guys who tried to steal the company for "pennies". Would ALFA do that? Hard to say. If they tried to keep their ground and not to give in, they'll lose the case now and if the oil doesn't go down more in July the outcome on July 28 might be the same. And what more important is: what to do with all those +60M shares bought at a very high price? That's why I think ALFA is not very inclined to up the bid:1)they paid a lot for their 20% 2)the company is in much worse shape now than it was in times they bought in.At the moment ALFA ,sort of, doing a favour to small shareholders offering even that low $6.50. It starts looking that O'Hara is not just looking to sunk the transaction to get a bigger offer but to remove ALFA from the picture. I'm speculating here ,of course. It's a chess game, right? If ALFA drops the bid the sp tanks.(BTW, don't worry about $100M break up fee, won't happen) Just a scenario: oil goes down , O'Hara comes up with an offer of , say... $6.0. Why? Because the oil is down and the debt is high and at the moment this offer is very compelling.