Iran Oil Boost on Hold to 2016Iran Oil Boost on Hold to 2016 as Nuclear Inspectors Go to Work July 15, 2015 3:19 AM EDT Global oil markets wont feel the real impact of Irans historic deal with world powers until 2016 as sanctions remain in place while nuclear inspectors go to work, said banks including Citigroup Inc., UBS Group AG and Commerzbank AG. OPECs fourth-largest member wont achieve a crude-export boost of more than 500,000 barrels a day, or about 50 percent, until next year as Irans compliance with curbs on its nuclear program is verified, the banks say. The nation will probably choose to gradually increase exports once sanctions are lifted, rather than risk lower prices by rapidly pushing crude into an oversupplied market, according to the International Energy Agency. It will be a long and winding road before Iranian oil returns to the market The agreement between Iran and six world powers will eventually lift restrictions that have halved its crude exports, provided the Persian Gulf nation removes nuclear centrifuges and cuts uranium stockpiles. Sanctions will remain in place at least until international monitors report on the countrys compliance in December. The current time line for the lifting of sanctions precludes any substantial increase from Iran this year, Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity markets strategy at BNP in London, said by e-mail Tuesday. It will be a long and winding road before Iranian oil returns to the market. Price Recovery West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. crude benchmark, slumped 2.5 percent on the New York Mercantile Exchange after the deal was announced early Tuesday, before ending the day 1.6 percent higher at $53.04 a barrel. Obstacles to the restoration of Irans exports mean the early drop was overdone, said Eugen Weinberg, head of commodities research at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. Iran can add about 300,000 to 500,000 barrels a day by the end of 2016, with the extra supply potentially pushing WTI below $45 a barrel, Citigroups New York-based head of commodities research Ed Morse said in an interview. The current surplus in global oil markets may prompt Iran to slow the return of exports, rather than offer price discounts to attract buyers, according to Antoine Halff, head of the oil markets and industry division at the Paris-based IEA. Its not like refiners are starving for crude, Halff said in an interview. I would not expect Iran to engage in a full blown price war just for the sake of regaining market share. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-15/iran-oil-boost-on-hold-to-2016-as-nuclear-inspectors-go-to-work