Barkerville Gold Mns Ltd BGMZF

RE:RE:GOLD DE-VALUATION: Manipulation or Last Gasp of Bear Market

[Rollercoasterblues]

One more thing I forgot to mention.........I stared in wonder at the recent wild Chinese stock market swings and the reactions of the people, media, etc and tried to find some meaning in it and have concluded the following.............THE CHINESE STOCK MARKET PONZI SCHEME OF 2014-2015 vs the US REAL ESTATE PONZI SCHEME OF 2006-2007 were very similar based on the following reasons:

-both came at the end of a long bull run of their economies
-both are the two largest economies in the world by far
-both had their govts ENCOURAGING PEOPLE TO INVEST because it was safe and a prudent thing to due and both told banks to make it happen......let  anyone use margin
-both happened when their interest rates were set low to allow it to happen
-both happened suddenly and both had the media on a full court press adding to the horror of the moment forcing people to paniic sell
-both saw significant government intervention AFTER  the tragic moments......I suspect we will see further shock drops in the Chinese markets and then the govt getting involved even more there

MOST IMPORTANTLY, we saw the gold price go on a bull run triggered by a decline of ONE ECONOMY with a market value of $15 trillion GDP (at the time) and this time WE WILL LIKELY see a gold bull run triggered by a declining ECONOMY worth $10 trillion GDP....plus Europe.. pushing it over $25 trillion..........

The parallels are quite intersting and bare minimum, as you can see, given what has happened where we are going and what is likely to happen going forward, GOLD CANNOT BREAK THE $1000 barrier and A CASE HAS BEEN MADE FOR IT TO BREACH $1250 easily over the coming year and beyond.......which will have a positive effect for those that position their investments correctly. If you have been on here long enough to know how I made my money, I would have mentioned that it was in real estate and then occasionally getitng lucky-astute buying on the bottom of recessions certain stocks like Manulife and Teck..........well, this time, I don't do stocks except juniours of gold (already started) and I keep my Manulife as a hedge against rising interest rates in the coming years (it is an interest rate sensitive business so if rates go up, they make a killing and the stock apprecialtes huge)......I also believe in Blackberry being at the right positon in time in the tech cesspool that has emerged with security and loosness in general in technology which is racing ahead faster  than we can monitor.....BB has great management now and I wouldn't bet against Chan!

i am getting out of real estate soon in all areas outside of Metro Toronto because real estate prices in Southern Ontario are near a peak in my opinion and interest rates wil rise in concert with oil I suspect with a flood of investment money that is forthcoming into Canada with a rising dollar which will happen in about a years time. We have a perfect situation of a recycling of sectors.....

Real estate too high (interest rates very low for long time)....something has to give in about a years time so we have a good opportunity to maximize highest price of real estate sales

Oil price....in a recession right now but won't stay for ever....what happens when interest rates go up, we will see a flood of sellers on the real estate market and people will be torn between having to travel far paying higher gas prices and getting lowering prices for their homes so they will panic sell and perhaps move to larger to medium sized cities looking for work

Gold price....will rise as previously mentioned for about the next 2-3 years

Stock market...will be very choppy with the combination of little to medium sized investor selling out to pay for living from the whammy of rising interest rates.....interestingly, I believe some will be attracted to the bull run of gold and buy in rather than the choppy industrial/financial/tech and retail stock prices that is coming........big players will move out of inflated stock prices and into bearish gold that is set for a ballistic final run going forward

X-factor.....change of govt in Canada....higher taxes, with rising interest rates, attraction of real foreign investment that is long term and into the commodities sector and manufacturing  sector given the  cheaper commodity and real estate prices which make up  the highest proportion of their capital costs (rather than the buy and run brand/idea stealing policies allowed by the Harper govt)

I have been in this position many times over the past 35 years. What did I invest in long in each case......real estate and select stocks. Given the demographic changes we are facing going forward with an aging boomer population and the wheels of economic growth likely to go sideways......I believe real estate is NOT THE WAY TO GO for now and so therefore I can only conclude that there has to be a commodity that I can park my money into until I figure out where to select my real estate $$$ to go to (perhaps the U.S. or East coast of Canada?)...or do I go financial instruments once interest rates rise........ I think GOLD offers the best alternative to park my long term $$ into temporarily over the next  2-3 years to see where things go!

Its been a while since I posted such a run of deep macro-economic thinking and for the record, the last time I did, I suggested gold would bounce off of $1200 and run to $1500-1600.......and I was wrong......

This time, I am not speculating....which is why I thought I would share what I see having taken some time off for quite a while and having a hard look at things..... the recent peculiar events around the world coupled with this falling gold has increased my focus my attention on reading what is going on and what do I believe is where to go to maximize a return or at the very least, not get burned from falling real estate prices and missed opportunites that come with that...

Cheers