i dont know what the shareprice will do......but the mindset "its gone from $40+ to $20, that means it has to go back up again, right?" is not the correct one, in my opinion. a more helpful mindset would be "its fallen from $40 to $20, does cpg have the currency in its shareprice to continue its operations over the medium term if oil continues to lag".
cpg has fallen from $45 to $20. I'm not sure what the surpise is if it falls further. I'm not saying to sell. I'm not saying to buy. I have no idea what the shreprice will do. however, thinking its going to bounce JUST because its fallen so much is a dangerous thesis.
there is not much scott saxberg can do, if oil stays at these levels. most of cpg's peers have already cut their dividend and have faced far worse losses in shareprice than cpg. look at baytex. that will never be the same company again, shareprice wise, in my opinion.
good luck.