RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:THIS IS A BOUNCE BACK!!!! As you mention, capital budget of $95m-$100m and operating cash flow of $100m was based off of $49.75, so they shouldn't reduce capX budget if oil stays between $45-$50/bbl. Under this scenario production forecast is 13,500 boe/d but keep in mind April/May production was closer to 14,500-14,800 boe/d with limited drilling. That includes 1500 boe/d of Kaybob offline but positively impacted by bring some portion of 8 ante creek wells on line due to expanded infrastructure.
Ante Creek undrilled and Ante Creek infill have such strong returns and cash payback which are unique to the industry and the balance sheet + operating cash flow allows them to follow their plan while many (or most companies) are pulling back because they can't drill wells that create a funding gap, increase debt and payback D&C capX in 3,4, 5 years.
In the early days of commodity price declines everything is sold and there will be debt restructurings for many North American E&P names. But over time the dispersion of returns widen. This has occured over the last decade in independent power (2002-2003). Calpine and NRG went bankrupt, but names like AYE (fell 90% in sympathy, never went under and recovered from $3 low back to $40). It's happening today in coal where many restructurings are taking hold (ANR, JRCC, WLT PCX, possibly ACI) but baby out with bathwater survivors (ARLP, CNX, FELP, TCK) will rise frrom the ashes due to their ability to survive. It happened recently 2009-2014 in oil tankers.
The underlying restructuring of many names also help in balancing the market. Again, those who benefit are the well capitalized, low cost providers, with good asset.
Doesn't mean RMP doesnt trade lower next week if oil is $42, $40 or $38/bbl. But the long term risk/reward is compelling for a company like this.