RE:RE:Is It Time To Buy CPG Shares Yet......?I have a payout (excluding drip) of 108% in Q2 and a just over 100% Q3 and Q4. Used WTI $58 Q2 and $48 Q3 and $50 Q4. Cdn dollar $77 cents. They spent $556.8 in Q1 ($496.2 drill bit). $275 mln , $275 and $287 mln drilling I estimate each qtr 2015 for a total $1.3 bln through the drill bit. Total spending $1.55 billion assumed in 2015 as they indicated last after recent acquisitions.
Their hedges are helping 2015 and if they can drill for 20,000 per bbl capital efficiency I think they will be okay this year. I have production ending at 167,000 b/d with a 39% overall decline rate built in quarterly. Their balance sheet should not get worse as we head towards the end of the year so the divy is safe for now at least is what my model suggests. Next year if oil stays at $50 and with slightly lower hedges, some serious decisions will have to be made. I think they will wait it out. They could always pare back spending a bit more is my guess and I bet costs will continue to decline as they drill less and focus on most productive areas. Consequently, I use $18,000 bbls for capital efficincy next year ( it is drilling only capital efficiency ex plant) and a slightly lower decline rate. I think the decline rate will come down as a result of their acquisitions and less drilling and the benefits of their waterfloods.
They could manage to borrow to pay for drilling/dividend next year which would take debt up to $4.6 bln from $4 bln now and that is with WTI at $50 flat next year. But that price scenario seems quite harsh. If oil moves up to $55 next year and spending cut back to $1.4 bln..then payout would be only 118% and manageable as well as debt to cash flow at the higher end of the comfort zone or 2.2 times. But then 2017 would certainly look better with oil prices much higher I would think and if WTI is $65 then they would be in a recovery/growth mode once again with the divy more secure. I think the numbers I used a relatively low price forecasts which I inputed to see what gives. Of course there are a lot of assumptions and unfortunately my model is a little too large to include here but I thought I would share these set of assumptions and possible outcomes with you.
I think the market will be surprised at how long they can hang in at these low prices and keep paying the dividend while waiting for the next leg up. Their balance sheet can tolerate it a while longer.
splurge