RE:Paronoid AndroidsHi KingKongDiv,
I agree with you on that point, they are not selling hot-dogs.
I read plenty of articles on the CS series and what I see as the "fuel" to that fire is:
1) Initially the program was suppose to cost 3.5$ billion (this was in May 2005), and we are over-budget of 2$ billion.
2) 2 years delay... people are probably thinking there is going to be more delay... but when you look at the progress they made... it looks like they will be aight. They reached 2000h flight.
3) They say they would have 300 firm orders by the time the CS enters in service, and they have 243 at the moment... but hey they still have time to reach that 300 target, they are in discussion with 6 customers at the moment (in the news on July 30th)
I think that people starts to lose confidence and those who got in above 2$ and starting to freakout... They are losing a bunch of money at the moment... and when you read the news all you see is people saying bankruptcy. I think that people are not well informed about the CS program, maybe they have invest in bombardier because they felt comfortable because the "Caisse de Depot" was in it so they thought it would be a great investment.
I think we must not forget that Bombardier is going big with that CS program, however there is always a risk of the program not working... every investors have to know that. But as for my part, I took position not long ago... at 1.50 and again at 1.34.
With that in mind, I also find that the ride is bumpy as hell. It's kind of scary, but I read on the program, and with all that I read... I can only be confident in my position. With that last week and the start of this week... it made me doubt a little, however I know it could go a bit lower... we could see the 1$ and maybe 0.90$, but if we reach that low... If there is no news talking about delays, or cancellation, I would probably take another position at those level.
I mean, we are almost at the end of the program. The CS100 should see the light early in 2016, followed by the CS300 in the other half of 2016. They also have some customers asking if they are thinking of a bigger model, the CS500. They informed those customers however that they really focus on the CS100 and CS300 at the moment. but still, that's kind of a good news.
The plane is beating the target it had. If there is no further delay and cost overruns... this stock is going back to 3$ easily.
IMHO
Quanadien