RE:Lucara is a bargain, according this analysisIn 2014 Lucara sold about $90 million in Q3 . $40 million of that came from the July EST. Leaving about $50 million in other diamond sales. That put them at $195 million for the year.
In 2015 Lucara has a $69 million EST in Q3. We know they have a minium of 75,000 carats on tender in late August. Somewhere in the area of $30 to $40 million . That is $100 to $110 million. My expectation is $170 to $180 million for the first 3 quarters. Down in diamond sales $15 to $25 million.
In 2014 Lucara sold $70.5 million in Q4. So for Q4 in 2015 using the #'s mentioned above we would need $85 to $95 million to match last year. Expect another $30 to $40 million in other diamond sales. Add that to the $170 to $180 million and we have exactly Lucara's reduced guidence of $200 to $220 million for the 2015 year.
Question, could it be that Lucara had real second thoughts that they may not be able to pull off a second EST by the end of the 4th quarter ? They were even doing some dancing around that the next regular tenders might be on the larger side to attract more buyers . If there were some question on another EST happening this year that was just put to bed .
Anyway if we are back on tract for a $40 to $60 million EST then we are right back on tract for $240 to $280 million in diamond sale revenues . That even takes down their earlier proposed guidence of $230 to $240 million.