RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Looking forward to the buyback. Time to tradeWhen anyone applies for credit besides credits scores, net worth, existing debt the most important information for lender is income. Or the capacity of the borrow to repay.
For DIVCOs the most important thing is total payout ratio. These days for dividend paying oil companies the bottom-line for investor is the size of the debit to cash flow & total payout out ratio & at what oil price it exceed 100 % & by how much. Any company which has a lower debt to cash flow ratio & lower than 100 % payout ratio at present WTI will brags about it. These are the most important selling points.
PC talked about lower debt to cash flow ratio because company paid down the debt. But he never mentioned the total payout ratio which is the most important information that any investor would be interested in. If there was a question answer session potential investor would have asked this question.
With present oil prices, dividend & capex & if they buy all 21 million shares buy the year end then there is a fair possibility that their debt will exceed $200m.
We do not yet know how aggressive they will be buying back shares or even if they will ever buyback all 21 million shares. In vast # of cases companies never buy back & have the plan just for show. I do not remember if it was an oil or uranium company which has a buyback & the seller used an opportunity to get out. It turned out to be failure the seller took the stock down after the end of the program.
SGY has short position of 15 million these share cannot never be covered in 2 trading days. You would need volume of about 30 to 50 million shares a day & the stock will shoot up a few dollars. Usually the short sellers are institutional investors & better informed. If they think that a stock is getting ahead of its fundamental & share prices spike temporarily then they will add more shorts. There can be a few small retail short sellers who could be forced out because of margin call. Yes you can get a margin call on short sale if the stocks shoots up.
I do not think that all short position is will covered. For sake of an argument if it was covered then it could take a while & up to more than a month.
You can track daily purchases by SGY on TMX website. Check about one hour after close of trading.
https://www.tmxmoney.com/HttpController?GetPage=InsiderTradeMarker&Market=T&Language=en
www.tmxmoney.com/HttpController?GetPage=InsiderTradeMarker&Market=T&Language=en
If SGY does not make it in the top ten section then use the trades by symbol section. Click on it then add the symbol.