RE:2015 EstimateAug 9th back of the napkin for the unscrupulous Ol griz. The stock was about $0.95 then. Oops. The stock is a show me story now, PHM's financials have shown me that the stock is worth $0.65 or less.
5i5yphu5 wrote: ytd, phm has recorded 3.5 million in 'operational profit' and a net loss of 6 million attributable to shareholders. check phm's confusing statements on sedar. they talk about ebitda all the time in nr's but make it almost impossible to break down in the financials. therefore, i will go with operating profit before taxes/interest + D/A. cashflow is probably around 7 million so far.
over the next 2 q's the company needs to produce $34 million cashflow to reach Dalsin's exit 2015 target.
with gigantic expenses and quarterly stock based compensation a more likely outcome is that phm cashflows about 15 million and 0 EPS for 2015, assuming at least one of these LOIs close.
do they have enough money to close all of the LOIs? not enough, as sanspeine pointed out, they will need to raise again to do so.
current float: 350 million shares fd. 15 million cashflow in 2015. keep in mind phm has been trading 2x higher than peers for the last yr. suggests mkt cap of 300 million or $0.85/share. if they F up at any point again, don't close additional LOIs and have to raise, expect multiple to contract as the float continues to grow.
0.65/share is a realistic and fair estimate based on financials including sleep.
"Assuming we close all of the outstanding LOIs, PHM will be about a $175 million run rate revenue company with more than $44 million in run rate Adjusted EBITDA meeting our exit revenue run rate goal for 2015 of $175 million."
Read more at https://www.stockhouse.com/news/press-releases/2015/06/23/phm-announces-execution-of-a-letter-of-intent-loi-with-an-additional-regional#gSTjm1S4yqRy6cRH.99