RE:RE:RE:2015 Estimatelet's work backwords, phm has lost the forward premium. annualized 2016 doesn't matter because they haven't been able to prove anything so far, we don't need to argue this, the market is dictating it. organic growth is great but it won't be accretive any time soon, so it is irrelevant. next 2 quarters include sleep management which seems to be the only profitable element of the phm umbrella right now. the LOI's are the x factor, but they should not be factored in until proven accretive, the market doesn't care about forward LOI projections anymore. US healthcare assets have been bid up over the last 6 months. why the delay? how long until stock based comp stops chewing into profitability? a very long time.
i never said phm could not hit $1.50 again, my thesis is simply that it would hit $0.50-0.65 first and that it will be at least a year before management can untangle the mess D&G created.
lngscapphrma wrote:
I'm assuming you used Mar financials? Essentially your 2015 CF projections don't assume any organic growth in the base business for the 2nd half of the yr and also assume 0 CF contribution from Sleep Mgmt (which closed after march 31). They've got 57mm in cash as of Jul and have the option of funding the remainder using debt to avoid further dilution. You can argue stock based comp would be adjusted to arrive at an adj. EBITDA figure. Furthermore, companies arent trading off of 2015 multiples - they are trading off of '16.