Woulfe Mining Corp WFEMF

playing with numbers / post-merger thoughts

[74volfram]

368M voting shares. Total vote was 227.5M.  So the no-votes were not counted, contrary to my previous assumption. This merger apparently required an active majority.

The Kingsdale person indicated to Chizzles that the seven largest holders have 40% of the shares and were in favor of the merger: 147M shares.

Assuming Almonty + Dundee (A+D) were not included in this 147M shares.  They have lots of options and convertibles, but only 63M voting shares
- Total large holders = 147+63 = 220M shares
- The vote FOR was 223M, 4.5M voted AGAINST.
A lot more than 3M shares were indicated as FOR votes in the BB posts, so the starting assumption is not correct.  

So we now know that the seven largest holders (40%) must also include Almonty and Dundee and together they have 147M voting shares.
- Taking away A+D (63M shares) and Korea Zinc (34M shares), the residual 4 largest holders would only have 50M shares.  Which leads me to believe that some of the large holders that were listed in January either no longer hold shares or did not vote.
- If the total vote was 227.5M shares, then 70.5M of the votes cast were from smaller (retail) holders.  
Small holder vote was 66M FOR and 4.5M AGAINST. There are a lot of active and opinionated small shareholders here.  No wonder Mr. Black wanted to know how we were voting.

Recent large sale volumes at Woulfe:
- There have been about 10M WOF shares exchanged in the past month, equal to 1M AII shares. all of them between 6c and 7c.  
- When the 10M WOF shares are exchanged with 1/10 AII shares, the new shares (1M) will be valued at 85c.  That will be an overnight gain of 30% on average.  
- Most of the 10M WOF shares were bought by institutions through Instinet (about 6-7M), so they will stay out of circulation, but there were 3-4 M retail-bought (loose) shares.  
- With 300-400k new AII loose shares marked 30% higher overnight, the Almonty share price may drop some after the merger.  However in my estimation it will not go down below 70c.

Five points to remember about the A+W new company (from Black's comments after the merger):
- We are marrying a strategic deposit with a proven operating team at a moment in history where consolidation of our sector is essential for the future of our industry.
- The combined companies will represent over 40% of non-China supply of tungsten concentrate
- Moving forward we will continue to look to increase that share with further acquisitions of economically viable projects.
- The combined company is now the only multi project, multi operational mining and multi-jurisdictional tungsten company in geopolitically secure regions outside of China
- Uniquely positioned to continue providing a reliable Western source of supply to our existing customers.
I agree with GaiusG: this stock should not be bought or sold for short term profits.  This is a long horizon high payoff play. In my opinion, the combined A+W will become a tungsten major in the same league as the dominant Chinese miners (market caps 1B+), and I will continue to invest accordingly.

Same as most here, I will stop posting on this great WOF board (2000+ posts in one year) and move on to sleepy Almonty board (less than 20 posts altogether).  
One thing for sure: Almonty @stockhouse is about to get a lot more crowded ...