RE:The guess-estimate that proceeds tomorrows guess-estimateLargely comes from imports surge IMO. Domesitc production should fall, and could give surprise upside. The fact that Syncrude remains closed (a significant 300,000+ bbld capacity Vs GOBAL glut of 1-2M) and former Nexen Long lake halt is probably curbing the downside. Actually I speuclate that due to high operating cost Syncrude will probably be shut down longer than usual to minimize cash drain.
And as a mattter of fact, all refiners will be stockpiling oil like crazy at sub 40 oil price last week. Inventory build expected and we should watch the produciton numbers. Look at BTE, PWT etc all showing declining productions. Production decline is worldwide, not only in North America.
Of course the futures markets will still be obsessing on inventories, but the Syncrude outage(??) is very significant. Some high cost producers are beginnning to to stop expensive productions for whatever reasons..
Personally I have started divesting money to US producers , with the threat of NDP win in Ottawa.