Eurocontrol Technics Ord EUCTF

RE:Market Confusion

[shawshank]

lscfa wrote: Before Sipca

GFI revs for 2015 = $6 million
GFI 70% gross margin = $4.2 million
EUO Cash flow = $2 million
cfps = $0.02222
7x multiple = $0.155 sh. price



After Sipca (minimum royalty)

Csh flow = $2 million
less GFI = -$4.2 million
plus royalty = $1.5 million
new EUO cash flow = -$0.70 million (LOSS)

After Sipca (higher royalty & additional Xenemetrix sales)

Csh flow = $2 million
less GFI = -$4.2 million
plus royalty = $4.5 million
Xememetrix = $1.5 million (50% margin)
new EUO cash flow = $3.8 million
cfps = $0.042
7x multiple = $0.296 sh. price

Interesting analysis BUT-The Valuation Hypothesis is Incomplete:

Add .17 to .20 per cash per share with zero debt burden.

Equals .50 per share year  One BASELINED (Minimum) @ modest PE 7 which
is way to conservative for a hyper growth stock that would just be entering
its fastest growth period in its early lifecycle of the royalty model.

As the story gains (ed) traction a mutliple in excess of 30 times trailing earnings
based on FORWARD EPS projections on the black schole model alone.
would have EUO early into the SICPA deal with a $1.50 to $2.00 share price
valuation model.

Without any "X" factor that creates over demand (momentum) for a position in a stock with this much earnings and cash certainty in the small cap tech space still largely undiscovered by the market in general.

And Eurcontrol has all the earmarks of being able to not only attract that over demand interest and its capital and the coveted "X" factor coming into play BUT also IMO has the ability to sustain it as well.

Anything in the growth part of their business cycle-awash in cash-with 2 of THEE LARGEST SEMI CONDUCTOR COMPANIES CURRENTLY AND HiSTORICALLY WORKING WITH EUO"S ISREALI RandD SUBSIDuARIES-that is about to go live with their authentication and certification application-that is a pure tech play in the semi conductor and wafer space/sector
DOES NOT TRADE TYPICALLY IN MULTIPLES  BELOW 20P/E...its just not seen  as a typical occurence and investors in the tech space know this and would be more than aware of this
phenomena.

When the SICPA deal closes in less than 6 days trading time-and after the special shareholders vote is held to ratify the deal to move forward-Rowlands is a master at using the visibility channels to get the message out.

He will be awash in cash to earmark a portionfof proceeds to "pounding the table" in raising the visibility-company profile-brand-sector identity-and positive sponsorship in the process-erstwhile still generating positive revenue flows thru the licensing deal with SICPA and the locked in guaranteed $1.5million royalty backstop as the floor.

There is IMO No better small cap tech play on any canadian excange currently that is significantly derisked to the level that Eurocontrol is or represents such probable and possible big time positive upside in valuations when if you factor in the cash to be tallied up front in the SICPA deal of $16million? 

An investor essentially is buying a company that is trading a mere .025 cent over its pending cash value alone which means there is NO CONSIDERATION CURRENTLY IN THE VALUATIONS FOR THE SEMI CONDUCTOR/WAFER CERTIFICATION/AUTHENTICATION TECHNOLOGY GOiNG LIVE EARLY 2016 of WHICH VERTICAL MARKETS AND APPLICATIONS WILL RESULT...and that discount is just basically cuz EUROCONTROL has not made it known who thee 2 largest Semi Conductor companies are that have worked with them in development and commercialization of the technology or plans for either being a standalone company of Eurocontrol as in operational subsiduary or pursuing another licensing out business model.

So at .025 over cash value at .195 (without considering the .02 to .025 per share for cash on hand right now)?

There is no better investment opp for ROI and possible parabolic "portfolio making" "lifechanging" etc etc type of return in the small cap space with a large degree of 'CERTAINTY" because of the derisking that SICPA deal provides than Eurocontrol right now.

Or?....I would own it.

SS