RE:RE:RE:RE:High expectationsBG; you asked for thoughts about next week.
I may not have any friends after this post but it`s the way I see it.
Not that our thoughts count since it does not matter how loud we squack that`s all it is.
We never reach the upper chambers where the real thinking (right or WRONG) takes place.
So we are left yet again with our well manered “assumptions” and “speculations”.
I don`t really like to speculate on numbers with this Company because we are never fed the right base, but I can play around with what we know.
To be honest I don`t believe we have reached “yet” the magic 50.000 active members, if we have and he has not released them after two missed deadlines he should be fired or be crowned as the biggest masochist yet.
If we didn`t reach them it means May31st, August31st, and September whatever, not a good record, unacceptable and laughable, more like crying for us.
If we reached them, when did we reach them ?.
As for numbers for revenues from rentals I don`t believe they will be good (I hope I`m wrong) but with the first movie free and the next two at ½ price it does not give you a good start, there`s always creative accounting but it will have to be very good.
The fact that trading has been moribund to pathetic for such an anticipated CC and Financials and the only real accumulation still TD it makes you wonder.
That covers the members and possible revenues.
Some members have been debating as to quality versus quantity, we all know that the SIO Hi-Fi was the quality that should have brought quantity, but on March 3rd we came out with a new format compatible to SBS decoders on most devices and compatible with the SIO Hi-Fi, very good but not as good, but offering better quality and lower bandwidth, meaning IMHO that in this case quality took a back seat, now you can throw all kind of excuses some could be valid but that`s the fact, we are going with quantity and the main question is “WHEN”, it`s been six months since the announcement.
Samsung was announced for the Fall, so they don`t have to really say much more that it`s on schedule, even though he mentioned September as a slip of his tweeting tongue.
And here is something everybody will disagree with me, we all assume including me and pray that Samsung will change the game.
It was always assumed the LG was the 3D King and Samsung as the “active glasses dog” would not be as good, but alas LG did not deliver, not yet anyways, nor did Panasonic so now all our hopes are on Samsung.
I don`t think we`ll reach the 100.000 members by year end, it would mean 50.000 in the next 3 months, I hope I`m really wrong in this one but it`s hard to see going by the near past.
We did not get 25.000 on 9 months with LG
The one that bothers me is the Intnl Launch, if he does not come clean on that one it will be a “running joke”.
Another slip of his tweeting tongue already said that Spain and Germany were already set.
I read the Netflix structured expansion and it takes lots of money and a few years to break even by launching internationally, something we don`t have (time or money).
The Financial aspect gets more complicated, if we did not get good revenues from rentals all we`ll have is recurring royalties from mostly S2D switch plus rentals.
He was right when he announced that Wi-Lan was not going to bring any new deals this year but sometime in 2016 without specifying which half.
We are already at September the 18th and in October the 4th the first set of unexercised warrants will expire, there are roughly 5.5 million left which could have brought close to $1.000.000 to our coffers.
I don`t discard that yet, we know that 2.500.000 are the Caisse and they have already bought some under the 0.18 to help the Company, will they do it again?, I hope so, I have a trembling feeling.
“BUT” the Company has done nothing to encourage it, neither by trying to raise the SP or put some kind of “positive projections”, besides tweeting about upcoming film releases.
So we`ll need money that we don`t have and a different aggressive mentality, we just go at a snail pace, just a job in an industry where speed and opportunity take the front lead.
That`s my take BG, unless I`m wrong like I always hope I don`t see much more than another projection session with maybe firmer dates (we know what that means).
At this stage of the game I can`t see them raising more money , UNLESS they keep on selling the farm, in which case we`ll never see the light of day.
On the buyout scenario everybody and their dog knows about us, anybody thinking about would do it know or let SIO put the house in order and do it then, I can`t see anybody waiting till our SP goes wild.
We don`t fit in Netflix subscription mode but we could be added if cheap, all we`ll be selling is the technology the films are non exclusive and will have to be dealt separately, what would happen to the way we structured things with NeuLion and Deluxe and the cut to the manufacturers and everybody else will have some problems making it hard to do it, but maybe with a new outlook and a new management “or experienced help” we may do it on our own and then who knows.
50.000 now or 100.000 by year end will not give us enough to recoup what we are investing, never mind what we invested, we need “BADLY” sreaming to all devices , a good if possible launch by Samsung and a successful Intnl Launch, I hope I`m wrong but we need so much in such short time.
As it is now this is not run as it should, there`s something lacking bigtime, we all know what.
As always IMHO.
Cheers