GREY:LSTMF - Post by User
Post by
chantal2468on Sep 23, 2015 2:33pm
193 Views
Post# 24128889
At $70 oil LTS can NEVER pay back the debt
At $70 oil LTS can NEVER pay back the debtI regularly do these calculations since I bought LTS years ago.The netbacks would be $38 for 10M annual boe production.Of that $380 million $220M can go to capex because the other$160M goes to interest expense and G&A.No matter where they drill with that money (whether its 80 Bakken wells or 50 Cardium wells) the total cost is the same....the output for the newly drilled wells would be approximately 2.3 million boe annual.This would exactly offset the decline and keep production at 10 Million boe per year where we are now.The total debt would therefore not alter and could NEVER be paid back at that price level.Obviously if the drilling costs were lowered or the interest rate were lowered or G&A then a lower WTI could sustain them.But without a doubt LTS will be bankrupt in 3 years if oil never goes above $60 before then.You can't argue with math.By the way....dont bother saying they have the credit limit to draw on because if oil is still below $60 in 3 years from now they will not have a $750M credit line.They will be lucky if it is $400M and it will probably me maxed out if these conditions persist.We need $80 oil 3 years from now which is about a 50/50 chance in my opinion.