Intl Northair Mines Ltd INNHF

Commercial Property Index - bubble

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The vast majority of people believe that things are different this time around.  They believe that this is not a bubble.  They believe that this is healthy growth, and commercial properties as well as associated commercial mortgage-backed securities will not collapse in this environment, like it did in 2007-2008.

I am not one of those people.  I believe that this bubble was reflated with easy credit and printed money  over the past 7 years, including zero percent interest rate policy and QE (including a residual effect over the past year).

I believe an interest rate hike will eventually pop the bubble (though it might not be noticed right away).  Even without an interest rate hike, it could pop on its own (like an overblown balloon).  On the flipside, launch of QE4 and/or NIRP (negative interest rate policy) could grow it more near-term, but it will still eventually burst.