US GDP - .6% in Q1, 3.9% in Q2, projected 1.4% in Q3 GDP is the key measurement for growth in the US.
The original Q1 2015 was something like minus .7 (based on the previous year`s formula), but they literally fudged the numbers (changed the GDP formula) to bring it to an official plus .6% for Q1.
In Q2, a lot of spending was moved up from Q3 and Q4 of 2015, including build up of inventory (which will not be sold for a while). As a result, the final Q2 GDP posted was 3.9%. We should expect to see spending/productivity drain in Q3 due to loading some much of it into Q2.
The Atlanta Fed has come out with their latest projection of Q3 GDP. The Atlanta Fed is the most accurate at projecting GDP, as they load the latest data into their model on a daily basis. Their update projection typically comes out once a week. Their model is showing 1.4% GDP for Q3 (slightly down from 1.5%).
Of note, they use inflation as a deflator when calculating GDP. The true (real) GDP is far lower than their published GDP figure. What they do is take the nominal GDP then subtract the inflation percentage to arrived at the ``real GDP`` figure they publish. The problem is with their inflation calculation. It shows that there is no inflation in the US. As a result, they substract zero perctage from the published GDP figure. For example, if only 1.5% inflation was subtracted from the projected Q3 GDP figure then it would show no growth for Q3 - which is closer to reality than showing 1.5% GDP.
The flaw in their inflation calculation logic has to be with not recognizing what goods are essential and non-essential to people. Technological improvements have allowed the high tech products to realize significant price reductions. This is heavily due to rapid improvements in computing power. As such, products like cell phones have come down in price. There have been significant reduction in the tech products like this, likely including applicances. They problem is hungry people can`t eat cellphones. Food prices are constantly going up. Ground beef alone (one of the most used food items) has increased something like 300 - 500% over the past 5 years. Rent has skyrocketed also. Homeownership rates are at multi decade lows, as regular people can`t afford to buy (partly due to low wage increases and low of full-time and quality jobs - replaced by part-time, low paying and no benefit jobs), and have move heavily towards renting. This has increased the rental prices meaningfully. Gas was high also, until recently. Healthcare costs are up too. They people can do without cellphones and other non-essentials. They cannot manage without food and a roof.
Most (regular) people are feeling the inflation pressures. They is why 50 million people are on food stamps in the US (dependent on food stamp subsidies from the gov`t to make ends meet). Also, they is why the food banks continually run out of food supply. A survey was done recently, which determined that 50 million people in the US used a food bank at least one time for the last year (or so).
In my view, realistic inflation for regular people / consumers is not being reflective in the government`s official inflation numbers. As such, subsequently, the official GDP is continually being overstated. It doesn`t provide a good gauge of what is really happening in the economy. This is partly why quite often gov`t numbers appear to be discounted with the situations people are facing each day.
Of note, I believe the gov`t inflation numbers are also used in setting both gov`t employee wages and for the businesses also. No inflation or low inflation, via the gov`t number, means that wages is being suppressed. This is partly why we haven`t seen much wage growth. Thus, adding further to the pressures people are feeling between increasing prices they have to pay for food, rent, etc and stagnant wages.