some thought about baytex's recent dropThis is my view of the company:
1. Productive assets with long-term value once oil price recovers
2. Production capacity doubled since the Eagle Ford play, which again demonstrate long-term value
3. Recent dividend cut and capex cut will conserve significant cash. If I remember correctly, div alone would save BTE nearly $260 million in cash.
4. No debt is maturing until 2020, and covenants were revised earlier in the year. BTE is not close to breaching any covenants (yet).
5. Substantial revolving credit to withstand further oil drop (ie covering debt service costs)
In my mind, these factors suggest BTE is still a strong player, but because of its pure play nature in crude, operation took a substantial hit under the low prices.
I'm not sure what's driving this dive in stock price, but if I have to guess, there is certainly some panic sell. It is entirely possible that someone is driving the stock down to make a take-over play. BTE makes an attractive buy for some major players. Though I haven't done any homework to see who may benefit from BTE's assets.
I'm long BTE. Fingers crossed. Goodluck to all