Styless wrote: icecube wrote:
1) I didn't say that short positions caused the downfall in the share price, only that we'll not likely see new shorts at this level to provide downward pressure.
2) Tax loss selling? Maybe. Let's see where it is in November/mid-December and address that then.
3) Seasonal factors are only one extra item. I also run long-term probability studies and correlation studies on individual stocks, sectors and indices. I'd allocate a CXR to my long-term 'conservative' portfolio before I'd take a CPH, but then there is the technicals.
4) Technicals often lead fundamentals.
Peter Hodson (5iresearch - subscription required) has some interesting comments on the company. I'll often use his research (as well as a number of other sources) and, just as important, the Q&A section, to gauge investor perceptions of a company.
I wouldn't hang on to 5i as a real source for anything. He said too risky to CRH and NHC and they ahve gone on to be amazing. His last reporto on Cipher was on April 16th where he rated it a B- at 14.33. How did that trade go? haha
I like Hodson, but he's not very active and has missed great opportunities and many of his recommendations have tanked for not updating his views more frequently. There's no recovery to that report price in April of 14.33. No chance.
He didn't even get his facts right. In one response to a question, he mentioned that the company had no debt, but looks okay
September 29, 2015 (asked by Paul)
Question: I am down almost %50 on this stock. Do you see any upside in this stock?
5i Research Answer: We are quite surprised at the extent of CPH's decline, but then again many in the sector have dropped, fast. It has no debt and $30 million in cash, and still expected to show growth to 2016. Its last quarter was weak, however, and 2015 annual numbers will not be great.
We still think it is OK, and of course the big decline creates some upside potential for long term patient investors. However, we would expect the sector to stay very volatile for a bit, and CPH will likely be met with some year end tax loss selling, considering its 71% YTD decline. If you are not willing to commit for 3+ years it may be time to exit.
A month before he had this to say...
September 08, 2015 (asked by Hanna)
Question: would you please give me your opinion on cipher pharmacy - I purchased it at $16.63 in December - should I hold or sell. Thank you.
5i Research Answer: We really do not like the stock activity on CPH, but do feel the company still has potential from these levels. The 2Q report was weak, but we think the reaction has been too harsh. It still has a nice cash position, insiders are committed with a 39% holding, and it has a decent product portfolio. We might not expect much in the short term, but its 60% decline YTD makes it still worth holding, in our view.