Mission Produce Inc T.AVO

Primary Symbol: AVO

Consumer Defensive Packaged Foods

Mission Produce, Inc. is engaged in the farming, packaging, marketing, and distribution of avocados to food retailers, distributors and produce wholesalers. It operates through three segments: Marketing and Distribution, International Farming, and Blueberries. Its Marketing and Distribution segment sources fruit from growers and then distributes the fruit through its global distribution network. Its International Farming segment owns and operates orchards from which all fruit produced is sold to its Marketing and Distribution segment. Its farming activities range from cultivating early-stage plantings to harvesting from mature trees. Its Blueberries segment is a farming operation that cultivates blueberry plants in Peru. It provides value-added services including ripening, bagging, custom packaging, logistical management, and quality assurance. The Company also provides its customers with merchandising and promotional support, insights on market trends and hands-on training.

NDAQ:AVO - Post by User

Mission Produce Inc

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Comment by EiinSteenon Oct 01, 2015 6:23pm

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Post# 24155153

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Every day down

Pieper, I am not saying I do not think AVO can meet the $500 million revenues by the end of 2016. They should be able to get there based on their current sales trend.

I was taking about the market taking advantage of the fact AVO has missed on either consensus revenues or EPS. Last quarter, consensus revenue target was $87.71 million, while the reported revenue came in at $89.79 million - a small beat. EPS consensus, conversely was $0.17 while the reported EPS came in at $0.15. This did not meet market expectations for the quarter.

AVO is no longer the tech darling it was a couple years ago. A lot of controversial management decisions have generated a sour taste for this stock and I think investors are taking advantage of this by grasping at any negative news, however small, and using it to drive the stock price down. You can see the short interest has been steadily increasing.

As far as your numbers go in reaching $500M by the end of 2016, I do not know how you are calculating things. If AVO can keep a similar growth rate quarter over quarter through to the end of 2016, they will exceed that target. They will need to keep growth at just over 35% quarter over quarter to get there. If they can maintain a 38% growth rate or over then it will easily surpass $500M.

What I think weighs on investors is that growth has definitely slowed down in the last two years. Even in Q1 and Q2 of 2014 you were still able to see growth of 66-74% quarter over quarter, now you are seeing growth this year of 35-38% with two quarters remaining. The economy is somewhat in shambles right how with interest rates and global slowdowns in mind. AVO's Plano plant looks to be well on course though, so how are these factors going to play out in the next few quarters? Are you sure 35-38% growth is achievable going foward? I think it's a reasonable assumption, but not guaranteed.

I'm not pumping or knocking the stock. Just trying to add something to the conversation. You need to consider that even if AVO hits the $500M revenue by the end of 2016, have investors already factored this into the stock price? Do they even care? AVO is a growth stock. They need to have a big quarter with both revenue and EPS beats to get a reversal on the current share price trend.

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