COS valuationtoo many philosophers here with no clear understanding of Syncrude operations. Before Suncor existed, Syncrude was already a leader in the development, research and production of oil sands. Suncor evolved lately as a big company due to the acquisition of Petro Canada.
Syncrude has been meired with problems regarding reliability for the last 4 years, however COS still produce 38 million barrels per year and once the reliability issue is resolved (which is already in progress) production will surpass 40 million barrels. This 50% discount or drop in oil price is temporary even if it stays volatile for the next 12 months, eventually oil will move much higher. COS spend over $3 billion on CAPEX in the last 3 years and if oil price was still in the $90 to $100 range, COS investors would have had a yearly dividend of $2/share. Unfortunately all the stars didn't align for this to happen but eventuallky it will. The last sale at Syncrude fetched around $33/share equivalent of COS share, so give me a break!!! Suncor wants to buy 37% of Syncrude assets free of any charges if you include the latest CAPEX....it will never happen. Russia and Saudi Arabia will be forced to cut production soon or the princes of SA will find their head shopped and hanged on a golden stick.
Does COS need to sell itself? probably no, renewal of debts will be in 2019 and no CAPEX planned for the next few years. What is happening right now is the negative noise of all analysts vis a vis oil price and price target target for the next few years. Oil is cyclical and strong company survive, just ask Suncor employee how in 1987 Suncor was going to mothball its operation after a long strike and oil price drop at the time real estate market in Fort McMurray went down 60%.
COS value per share is over $35 once an equilibrium is found in this volatile time.