GREY:LSTMF - Post by User
Post by
chantal2468on Oct 26, 2015 9:42am
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Post# 24226346
orlandofl...to the best of my knowledge...
orlandofl...to the best of my knowledge...
worldwide decline rates are 5% without any drilling at all....they are mostly conventional oil fields...completely different well profile from a tight horizontal well...My understanding would be to say to you that if the recent past is that a good indicator ....then NON shale production over the past 5 years has been FLAT.(us shale has been the entire growth in crude oil) So therefore if NON shale capex worldwide is cut 15% then my ballpark assumption would be that 5% of remaining 80M b/d production (4M b/d) would decrease by 15% or 600K b/d.....This seems to jibe with other sources I have seen that forecast US shale decrease 500K b/d (as you stated) next year as well as 600K b/d production decreases from all other sources.