CH-7 news expectationsI believe there are 4 crucial things to look for in CH-7 news release: carat per ton(both average and per phase), size distribution(biggest stones), quality of stones(whites, unbroken, valuation later) and increased deposit size
In determining my expectations for the pending CH-7 results I used the following. CH-7 is broken down into 5 distinct phases and I weighed them as such: CPT = Carats per ton
Kim-1 = 1.04cpt, makes up roughly 10% of the kimberlite to 290m
Kim-2 = 0.53cpt, makes up roughly 40% of the kimberlite to 290m
Kim-3 = 1.3cpt, makes up roughly 10% of the kimberlite to 290m
Kim-4 = 2.5cpt, makes up roughly 30% of the kimberlite to 290m
Kim-5 = 4cpt, makes up roughly 10% of the kimberlite to 290m
2015 Bulk Sample 558 wet tonnes screened to 1.18mm on site:
Kim 2 = Drilled 3x weights (105,561kg, 107213kg, 99,389kg) for a total 312ton
Kim 3 & 4 combined as NR did not separate the amounts = Drilled 2x weights (114,781, 109,468) for a total 224ton
Kim 5 = Drilled once weight (21,974) for a total 22ton
For a total sample weight of 558 wet tonnes.
Kim 2 = 56% of total sample weight
Kim 3 & 4 = 40% of total sample weight
Kim 5 = 4% of total sample weight
Using my assumed CPT for each phase based on previously released results I came to an expected 1.22cpt result. Except those numbers used do not take into account the fact the results have already been screened to 1.18mm as previous results have started at 0.85mm+ so this should have a small impact.
Therefor, PERSONALLY, I am expecting a 1.10cpt AVERAGE across all the samples combined. Anything significantly above that TO ME is good news, anything significantly below that is BAD NEWS.
As far as size distribution CH-7 has already delivered a stone over 6carats and several over 1carat. Considering the small sample to date one can quite conservately assume we will not only get more of those large stones but should see larger. Diamond mine delineation is a game of averages. We have 50tonnes sampled and have seen a 6carat stone, what happens we check a 500ton sample? The betting man would tell you that you will see bigger stones.
As far as quality of stones. We only have a small sample to go on but everything from those small samples points to quality on par to or even better than CH-6 as there is a higher % of clear stones in the CH-7 samples than the CH-6 sample though I do not expect that to hold up over larger samples entirely. I have put my expectations at $180us/carat average due to the drop in rough prices over this year which is still a very good per/carat valuation in comparison to similiar Canadian diamond mines.
As far as increasing the size of the deposit. One thing nobody seems to give PGD enough credit for is that they have been VERY good at keeping peoples expectations in check and then delivering beyond them. CH-6 has only ever grown under a drill program and I believe CH-7 will be the same.
At 1.10cpt average across all phases, 5million tonnes of kimberlite to only a depth of 290m and valuation of $180us/carat I believe right now CH-7 represents $1-billion dollars of added value to the Chidliak project as my low-end projection. This does not include anything below 290m, getting some wild large diamonds dropping out of the results, above average cpt results or unexpectedly high valuations.