RE:RE:RE:Monumental Short-sightednessSteveO48 wrote:
Hey CH4, what makes you think the numbers don't look like Megan Fox? Do tell or can you just spin the negatives??
The company is not going to be given a premium on 2016 guidance until 2015 is in the books. It traded there in the summer, not anymore. Q3 preliminary numbers = $50 million revenue + $9 million EBITDA for a total of $136mm revenue and $20mm EBITDA over 9 months. Therefore, Nobilis needs $97mm revenue and $22 million EBITDA in Q4 to meet guidance. Company says they stand by the guidance since Q4 is heaviest quarter due to the cyclical nature of reimbursement schedule in the US.
Shares: 70 million + 23 million (Spring raise) = 93 million. By my count it's somewhere around 98 million but hard to verify. Assuming they meet their guidance EV roughly around $380 million CAD. Stock is trading 6-7x EV/EBITDA with 2 quarters of negative earnings so far and delayed financials. Not undervalued. Q4 confirmed in March 2016. $4.50 - 5 is reasonable by then assuming they get their ducks in order. Market is pricing it fairly for now given the circumstances. 2016 year-end on $65mm US reported in March 2017, $7 target.
Issues: no acquisition yet despite being told funds raised would go towards accretive acquisition in the summer, management citing complicated M&A pipeline/higher M&A valuations. QbyQ - high stock based compensation, high acquisition costs and expenses, plagued by warrants past and future eating into earnings. Add delay of the quarter/bad markets, stock goes q by q now. If they make that acquisition, remains to be seen if they can reign in costs. Going by previous quarters I wouldn't expect that to change. Being accretive is easier said than done. Megan Fox numbers were late spring/early summer.