RE:RE:Share PriceHow does this sound?
New inversion rules unveiled – three key rules, one could impact POZN-TRX; Guidelines apply to all deals on go-forward basis;
Expect TRX & POZN trade down today on concern (although comp inversion names flat/up); Should deal not go through, we still like both co’s on standalone (F/D, no M&A, current cap structures, 9x EV/EBITDA):
1) POZN = $8.50/sh (close to $7.65 + $1 CVR third party offer pre-TRX), strong mgmt., relationship with Deerfield, YOSPRALA IP in Dublin already;
2) TRX = $0.90 barebones valuation, could have more upside from M&A and premium trading multiple;
Key concern is “third country” rule – new Foreign Co. must be same domicile as acquired foreign co (TRX is CAD, foreign co is Dublin); could be work around, but will take time for tax council to work through; POZN motivated to close deal, but Deerfield likely calling shots.