RE:RE:RE:Oil down ath upyes I agree, but that ishort assessment ncludes 2 quarter of more red numbers, q4 and q1-16 based on HS not running at capaciity, and also based on higher costs that they had in 2015.
we already know that costs are coming down in 2015 as are capitial and they will align capital with CF to preserve balance sheet strength.
the shorts are also not counting on any deals be they JV's on duvernay lands which seems the most likely to me or JV on HS phase 2 or debottlecking project.
now if SU ps their ante for COS, then that will also help ATH valuation.
I'm not saying the shorts are wrong, because it's very challenging in the path for sure, but there are developments that can push ATH higher.
they have low net debt, and if they watch their pennies and nickles in 2016, they will survive and prosper very well.
the assets are very good assets and the net debt is very low and if COS deal is good, ATH will move to 2 plus over night.
I guess you could play ATH instead of COSm if you think COS will get a better deal because ATH has the shorts that won't like COS getting a better valuation on their oil sands assets.
lots of angles, take your pick, and shorting if an option but I'm not sure I will pick that option just yet.
also if Santa comes to the market then oil will rise as will oil stocks even if only temporary.
GLTA