GREY:LSTMF - Post by User
Comment by
kmappon Dec 11, 2015 8:16am
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Post# 24375912
RE:RE:Zombies appear in U.S. oilfields as crude plumbs new lows
RE:RE:Zombies appear in U.S. oilfields as crude plumbs new lows Very valid points UofL, I don't disagree with any of your opinions. When I refer to many other companies facing the same problem is the effect of the oil price decline starting in the fall of 2014 when the Saudi's decided to defend market share. What happened to LTS before that time is all due to the reasons you pointed out, management. LTS was around $6 in the fall of 2014 and its fall from $36 to $6 was due as you described. My point was the fall from $6 to $0.25 is due to the Saudi's market share policy. I believe if oil were still at fair value of say $70 LTS would not have continued its downward trend to $0.25 but would have held at its fair value of somewhere around $5? Since the collapse in oil started LTS management seems to have taken the right steps to try and survive. They cut then stopped the dividend fairly quickly, slowed drilling then stopped, rearranged debt lowering overall balance owing, sold some assets just before all this started, too bad they hadn't sold it all. This may all be for not though as the debt balance is viewed as still way too high and the cost to service the debt with dwindling cash flow due to the ever falling price of oil will be the nail in the coffin for not only LTS but many other companies too as described in the article I provided the link to. I had spoken to JW a several months ago and did say please tell me you were obtaining hedges when oil bounced back to $60 in the spring of 2015. I see LTS in the December presentation by the CFO webcast they had started to hedge around $50, not sure how much was done but I fear it is too little too late to withstand this prolonged downturn. Only an opinion, thanks for taking the time for an interesting discussion rather than some other posters with the continual tit for tat name calling and arrogant bullying this board is drowning in all too often. kmapp
RE:Zombies appear in U.S. oilfields as crude plumbs new lows
UniverseofLimes - (12/11/2015 3:35:46 AM) "This problem is also facing many companies that are all in similar positions as LTS. I differ from what has been suggested on here that LTS has gone from over $36 to $0.26 due to simply bad management." LTS (PetroBakken) overpayed for the assests they acquired and payed a heavy unsustainably dividend that created dilution. Management continued paying this unsustainably dividend through a declining stock price creating a larger problem and later through the declining oil prices... Oil collapsed sure, but LTS had problems far before the oil market had problems. The collapsed price on the oil market just further enhanced what the company was already dealing with... You can not honestly over-look these facts, just look at the graph, research, news releases, and cross referrence with the stock price with the oil price. You will notice a common trend related to the price of oil: Price of oil moves up and LTS moves down. Price of oil stays the same LTS moves down. Price of oil moves down, and LTS moves down. You are corect that, "LTS is not the only company facing this difficulty, many others are facing the same problem". However these companies did not make the same high debt, heavy dividend paying, high leverage, overpayed assest aquiring mistakes that LTS continued and repeated through since inception "I don't believe LTS would have continued on its downward trend to $0.26 if oil markets hadn't become oversupplied by countries in a pissing match to preserve market share. If oil was sitting at a fair value of $70-$80" Again, look at LTS's stock chart when the price of oil was $100 a barrel, and through the recession recovery when just about every other oil stock made significant gains. "I had put my trust in these executives to make the proper decisions by operating a company safely." These executive make money in great markets as well as poor markets, same pay! They are way overpaid, and completely unethical... Wright for example has continue to obtain his $0.05/per share warrants through inception - This is probably one of the worst TSX listed stocks on the exchange and he continues getting paid like it was one of the best... Just my opinion though...