RE:RE:RE:This stock turned into a traders paradiseWith all due respect, I'm not sure I agree.
It could be that anyone buying at a half cent was thinking, hold on: This company did roughly $34M GR in the last 12 months. And the industry has an EBITDA margin of roughly 23%, and trades elsewhere around 10-17X EV/EBITDA. So then they might think, well, if someone can right this ship, it might be worth something like $34M*23%*10x = $78.2M, less the $12.2M in debt leaves $66Mfor prefs and common. There’s about $7.3M in prefes out there, so that’s roughly $58.7M for common, or about $0.32/s on 179M o/s.
Then they might think, let me put on my BMO hat. The lender has two options; a) force it into creditor protection and carve it up, or b) restructure the debt. Option a would involve selling off the subsidiaries as was done this summer in an orderly liquidation, with debt and prefs likely covered, and commons torched. Option b is to replace management, convert to a 3yr amortizing facility and exit forbearance, seemingly condition on a $3M raise in pref shares.
You might think about who’s holding the commons and how a decision to roll up a company that had potential would be viewed by the markets, and how a decision like this might affect the lender in the future.
You might then think that a credible, and plausible alterative exists, and you might believe that a bet at a half cent has better than a coin toss’ chance of coming up heads.
And as it turns out in this case, you would have been right.