RE:NOT LOOKING GOOD...Praxis says "As long as the oil price falls it seems better to tender. Oil prices just keep collapsing. This is NOT good for COS. SU may win out in the end. The problem with COS right now is it is basing everything on a upside to oil price. Right now oil price looks very bad and seems to be getting worse and worse!"
This deal will not get done because whether you get 8.50 or cos trades at 5$, I don't believe the individual investor care enough to tender their share as most have lost way more in the past few years. To get individual investor to take action, there would have to be extra incentive. I believe a $3.00 cash per share incentive if submitted by the deadline would help in getting investor to tender their shares. Without any extra incentive, I won't bother picking up the phone to tender and this from someone that doesn't like COS management.
I know the argument Suncor management is making that oil price are way lower than it was last april and last october and I can understand if they stick to their gun and this might be be a prudent financial decision, but if they really want this assets, they will have to up their offer in order to get the shareholders which don't really care one way or another if this deal goes through. If not, they just have to walk away or go look for another company in more serious financial difficulties that would welcome such offer.