This looks like one of the more likely takeover targetsFrom Salman Partners:
Implication:
•Strong Financial Position: as of September 30, Avnel has a cash/cash eq. position of US$9.17 million, working capital
of US$10.95 million and zero debt. We expect that Avnel has sufficient funds to advance the Kalana Gold project to a
construction decision (expected within 2016).
•DFS On-Track: management reports that the Kalana Gold DFS is on schedule, and is expected to be completed by the end
of Q1 2016. Engineering studies are well advanced, with final metallurgical testing and process plant site designs expected
to be completed in Q4 2015. Geotechnical programs for open pit and tailings dam designs are now complete.
•ESIA Near Completion: With the Public Participation Process of the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA)
due to close in December, Avnel expects to file the assessment by year-end and receive approval in Q1 2016.
Recommendation:
Adjusting for Salman Partners Q4 revised commodity price (US$1,250/oz LT Au, from US$1,200/oz) and FX (Cdn$:US$0.7448,
from 0.7482) forecasts, in addition to Q3 face value asset/liability adjustments, we derive a revised target price of Cdn$0.65
per share (from Cdn$0.55 per share). We maintain our BUY recommendation, and reiterate our investment thesis:
•Low Permitting Hurdle: project is situated on 387 sq.km Kalana Exploitation Permit; ESIA to be filed in Q4 2015, approval
expected Q1 2016.
•Financeable Project: we estimate initial CAPEX of US$171.3 million.
•Attractive After-tax Economics: we estimate NPV10% of US$203.8 million, a 55% IRR at US$1,250/oz long-term gold.
•Significant Upside: advanced exploration targets within 387 sq.km Exploitation Permit, within trucking distance of the
proposed Kalana milling facilities.
•Community Support: Avnel Gold is the largest employer within the region and has taken a very active role within the
community.
•Strong Project Support: With the backing of majority shareholder Elliott Management Corp., we believe that this project
will be advanced to A) production or B) a takeover.