TD Revised Target Price is $1.71Bankers Petroleum Ltd. (BNK-T, BNK-L) C$0.93 Q4/15 Update, Remaining Disciplined in Challenging Times Event This morning Bankers Petroleum announced its Q4/15 operational update and hosted a conference call. Impact: NEUTRAL We view the production and sales volumes relative to our estimates and consensus as neutral. We expect that the share price is likely to be driven by the near-term oil price volatility and the tax dispute resolution process with the Albanian authorities. TD Investment Conclusion Q4/15 average production of 18,137 bopd would have been approximately 18,600 bopd if it was not for the flash floods that resulted in a loss of 1,000 bopd for a 2-week period. This adjusted figure is 2% lower than our estimate of 18,920 bopd but almost in line with a consensus of 18,530 bopd. It is notable that the company has shut-in production from additional marginal wells due to continued downward pressure on oil prices. The management has previously guided to a 15% production decline over the course of 2016 based on a capital budget of $65 million, which is based on an assumed average Brent price of $46.25/bbl. We view the resolution of the Albanian tax dispute as the most significant potential near-term catalyst for the company, and we note that the companys 2016 budget is based on a resolution by the end of Q1/16. Until then, it is expected that the company will pay the Albanian tax department a total amount of $18.5 million. However, a protracted tax dispute resolution process (with more monthly provisional payments to the tax department) and a loan repayment of $21 million (Raiffeisen facility maturing March 31, 2016), if not deferred, could contribute to a funding shortfall if oil prices remain below managements assumed 2016 Brent pricing. We continue to believe that the Albanian government remains committed to reforms as part of its main objective of becoming a full EU member. Therefore, we are hopeful that a third-party tax audit could facilitate a settlement by the end of Q1/16. The company has a substantial resource base in Albania and a demonstrated track-record of value-creation through the application of good industry practices. We continue to hold a positive longterm view for the company and see the current share price as presenting an attractive addition to a diversified portfolio. However, this is qualified by our more cautious near-term outlook for 2016 with what we view as higher financing uncertainty in a lower oil price environment, at least until there is clarity on the tax dispute resolution and the companys debt management.