STUDENT TRANSPORTATION INC 5.25 PCT DEBS T.STB.DB.A

SNCF Participations increased their holdings since 4MM sale

[slimjim11]

SNCF Participations is the institutional holder that sold 4 million shares on Aug 12, 2015. They bought 136,695 on August 17 and 92,903 on Sept 15 and 83,640 on October 15. There are no reports of them buying or selling since October 15. This looks like they were participating in the DRIP, and if they were participating, and are no longer participating, that would explain the DRIP participation rate falling from 20% to 5% as per d_trump. Falling participation in the DRIP is good: it reduces our diltution at low share prices. We know: revenues have been growing on a rolling trailing twelve month basis consistently and Q1 continued this trend. We know: reported Payout Ratio as reported in the AIF has been getting better, and management have said that trend is continuing. The C$ dividend being received by shareholders now is higher than it was befor the conversion to US$. There has been no dividend cut. Lease finance rates are better than debt interest rates, so cash flows should be improving as the portfolio shifts from debt to lease finance. The residual values in the leases builds an off-balance sheet asset not reflected in the cash flow or balance sheet financial statement. Insiders and the company have been buying, both of which would be suicidal if there are major disruptions looming. The company has won some contracts recently for their asset light business, and announced them, though we don't know the magnitude of revenues or cash flow contributions. And the company issued an absolutely unequivocal press release on January 11 2016 that concluded, "We will report our second quarter results February 15 as we look forward to another safe and successful fiscal year." None of these known facts are indicative of a company about to cut its dividend.