RE:RE:RE:The Problems: Oil Prices and AlbertaFootballFan1 wrote:
According to their latest Presentation dated Sept 2015, 74% of LIQ sales was in Alberta and B.C......Now, this may gradually change with the new USA stores, but the big concern is still how well the Alberta stores do and whether any increase in earnings in the USA may be offset by declining profitability in Alberta (after the associated costs of getting these stores built or, in the case of the NJ stores, paid for and integrated is done).........Also, I'm wondering how price-competitive LIQ is vs. the competition in Alberta...?....Jack Daniels is the same no matter where you buy it from, and though LIQ store locations look great (at least from pictures I've seen), are their competitors offering the same products at lower prices, do people really want wine and beer tasting, private label offerings, fancy stores etc. going forward in this economic environment...?......As for Suncor, they are an integrated O&G company with high-margin refineries and downstream retail (gas station) operations across Canada, plus operations in the U.K, Norway, etc. The Alberta oil plays are only one aspect of the company - Suncor is the largest integrated O&G player in Canada, has a great balance sheet, lots of cash on hand, and actually increased their dividend last year - no comparison to LIQ in my opinion.....
In this September Presentation you have to keep in mind that only Same Stores Sales are used in this percentage count. So these large Format Stores that open recently, like the one in Kentucky in July, would not be counted in this. I believe these stores after to be at least 1 year old to be counted. But let's still look at what we have here. It says that 74% of our sales comes from Canada, which is Alberta and BC. Since BC has 35 Stores and Alberta 176 then 35 / 176 = 20% of these sales come from BC and thus 80% must come from Alberta. So 74% x 80% = 59% of actual sales coming from Alberta. As I said earlier, the 2 new Jersey Stores will generate about $73M CAD which is about 10% of our total sales. I also said that once LIQ buys 100% interest in these New Jersey Stores, which I said I expected them to do this year, and adding the other 2 new large Format Stores in Connecticut and Massachusetts, that I wouldn't be surprised if Total Sales outside of Alberta exceeds 50%. So Alberta Sales of 59% - 10% = 49%, which is less than half. This is also just from the 2 New Jersey Stores and not the other 2 other mentioned in the N.E. So from your own post I am not sure what you see wrong with my calculations or prediction.