LIQUOR STORES NA LTD 4.70 PCT DEBS T.LIQ.DB.B

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Ridiculous!

[Goldbuggy1]

OilMoneyAB wrote:

Goldbuggy1 wrote:

Goldbuggy1 wrote:

OilMoneyAB wrote:

OilMoneyAB wrote:

 

Goldbuggy1 wrote:
The more I look into this Q3 Report the more ridiculous this share price looks to me now. We had 35 stores in BC, 22 stores in Alaska, 15 stores in Kentucky, and 177 stores in Alberta. For a total of 249 stores. From the 177 Alberta Stores only Fort McMurray with 7 stores, and Grande Prairie with 9 stores reported slower same store sales. So a total of 16 stores. Edmonton with 81 stores, and Calgary with 44 stores both posted an Same Stores Sales increase. The remaining 36 stores in Alberta did not report one way or the other, but if sales were higher than expected, or lower, I think they would have been mentioned. So I count them neutral. Both BC and the USA reported Same Store Sales increases. So what you have is 16 stores out of 249 Stores which reported slower Same Store Sales. Or 16 / 249 = 6.5% of there total stores. But on this news and perhaps growing fear about the Alberta Economy this stock price has dropped 245%. Even after the purchase on the New Jersey Stores and the building of 2 more stores in the N.E., and a declared Dividend Payment for November, December, and January, which nobody thought they would make. All I can say is that this current stock price has sure got me fooled. I am looking forward to coming news and especially the year end report which should come out about the first week in March. It can't be worst than what Investors tend to think it will be.

 

 

I just want to echo the Alberta Market a little bit. I know this is a really small sample and probably does not mean much. But today I sat on a bench outside A liquor Depot for about 20 minutes in Lethbridge Alberta a city of 90 2 hours south of Calgary. A Saturday Afternoon and the shopping Plaza has a fairly steady pace of traffic in and out . I was satisifed with the volume of people stopping to grab liqour and was even more impressed with the varied demographic. We had your Typical 20 somthing Males, middle aged man, all the way up to a couple of Grandama's, a good mix of males and females. The males that were purchasing beer all of them came out with non "cheap stuff" No keystone or Brewhouse as you might expect, but 12 and 24 packs of Bud, that sort of thing. Everyone who enetered came out with a purchase except for 1 person. I don't know take it for what it's worth, sure same store sales might be down a bit but the AB economy is not colapsed and we have a lot of stores outside of Fort Mac and GP who's economys are much more diversified. 
 

 

 

 

I mean to say a city of 90 000 not 90 lol 
 

Thank you for your survey. I don't doubt that what you observed in no different in other major stores in Edmonton, Calgary, Red Deer, or Medicine Hat. One Competitor in Calgary actually reported sales are up over Christmas and New Year this year from last year. Fort Mac is different and I expect sales to be down there. Many workers who go there don't live in the city and are only there short term, making them transient workers. With the slow down a lot of these jobs have been cut back in drilling, exploration, construction, and camp jobs to house and feed these workers. So it stands to reason that with less people there now, sales will be lower. But LIQ is in a better position to weather this storm over there competitors, so if anyone closes down shop it won't be them.

Thank you also for clearing up this type-O error about Lethbridge Population. The way some investors are treating this stock they actually might believe that 89,910 people fled Lethbridge and Alberta for Greener Pastures. Which brings up the question as to where would those Greener Pasture be now? Alberta has been the Mecca for years for unemployed workers coming there to look for work, so where do they go to now? Back home to Mom & Dad? Well, maybe when there Unemployment Check runs out and on there last dime they would. But I think more likely they would stick it out and take whatever job they can find until things improve.

 

Also Fort Mac/GP have always had a lot of out of town workers, yes some from out of Province, but a lot are also born and raised in AB, just because people move out of Fort Mac/GP does not mean they are leaving AB. They are simply heading back down south to there home City, where a LIQ store is waiting for them. Alberta Rents are dropping, we still have 5% GST, Gas is cheap, unless these workers have connections back home in Ontario or further East I don't see all of them going back and finding instant work / a siginificant cheaper cost of living. Also if you look at the Canadian Rig count data below you will see the Rig count is picking back up at the moment. With over 60% of those rigs being in AB.  

Jan 4 - 142

Jan 11 - 203

Jan 18 - 214  <--- 133="" of="" those="" are="" drilling="" in="" ab="" that="">

 

 

Very true! For most of the Fort Mac Fly-in / Fly-out jobs you have to be based from Calgary or Edmonton so I am sure most live there. Also Fort Mac isn't exactly dead right now either. Suncor is still building there huge Foot Hills Project 90 km North of Fort Mac which if I recall will not be completed until the end of 2017. At Peak Construction for this site, which I expect will start sometime this year, there will be 5,000 Construction Jobs their. Add to this the spin off jobs, like catering and such, and this is a lot of new people moving in. People with families tend to live in Fort Mac but even if you are in a camp there are several free daily buses going to and from Fort Mac, so plenty of time and opportunity to go to town and get your favorite brew.