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TELESTA THERAPEUTICS INC T.TST

"Telesta Therapeutics Inc is a biopharmaceutical company. The Company is engaged in the research, development, manufacturing and commercialization of human health products and technologies."


TSX:TST - Post by User

Comment by IWillRetireSoonon Jan 27, 2016 9:28am
199 Views
Post# 24497457

RE:New here because I'm puzzled

RE:New here because I'm puzzledThe typical dilemma facing all investors for all stocks. First of all: Think with your head and not your emotions. You jumped in on the run up and you have shares that are currently valued less than what you invested. If you sell now you lock in your loss at this level. If you do that, never come back to see the price as you will just drive yourself nuts. Stock prices for everything have been in the crapper all of Jan. Will this trend continue or will it start to show signs of bottoming out. My money says an upturn is coming soon. That would include Telesta. The decision day is next month. I highly doubt any news release will ever be done before that since it could be considered inappropriate both to the FDA and to the investment community. Yet, in the lead up to the decision I would expect a much higher interest level and thus SP improvement.... to what level is pure speculation. However, I could very easily guess that you may have a good chance of recovering your buy in price. But you did not invest to just get your money back did you? Current longs have bought in at various levels, some at very high prices of over $1 per share and others such as myself who bought in at low twenty cents per share. I expect that the very long longs won't sell at all before the decision date. They have been here too long to sell at a loss just before FDA decision. You can tell who they are by the postings here. People who bought at prices below 35 cents may be enticed to sell before the decision. My personal opinion is that this sell point will occur at about double what many bought at - between 50 and 75 cents. Of course this is my opinion and I am merely a fellow investor and have zero qualifications to give advice other than my own personal experience. Decision day gets really interesting. Approval gets you multiples. Based on potential US sales vs current price I guesstimate between 4 and 15 times todays valuation. Keep in mind our valuation is just over $100 million Cdn and the US potential market is $700 mil US per year..... No brainer for a big pharma to scoop that up Outright rejection by FDA won't happen IMHO. There have been too many positives - MNCA works, ADCOM split vote, etc., for it to be killed outright. I would expect, in that case for the SP to drop to single digit pennies - to the value of a discounted cash in the bank valuation. Yet I cannot foresee this outcome. So that leaves a conditional approval/disapproval. This is the most likely of outcomes since we do have the issue of small trial size. Any such decision would push price down from pre - decision highs we have yet to experience. Look at the chart pre ADCOM. Where it would end up post decision is speculation but again IMHO, it would be where it currently sits after tanking a bit on conditional disapproval and much higher on conditional approval. Where to catch those spikes would be the question. In short, I feel that the downside to this is small and the upside is very good. Selling today is not a good strategy. Now, do you have the emotional guts to ride this out? (And the skill to read beyond ALL the silliness, bs and false pumping etc. on this board) NowRetired.
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