RE:RE:Real numbers! Oil supply and DemandThe europe differential asia really stands out eh?
Did you calculate the vitols overall world wide demand versus supply and consider the reasonableness of those numbers? Garbage in = garbage out?
According to Vitol:
Total Worldwide supply: 70 MBOE/day
Total Worldwide demand: 91 MBOE/day
Net: 21MBOE/day deficit
That means there is a daily %30 supply deficit or alternatively, assuming a constant vitol supply demand scenerio, every day the reserves/storage would have to decrease 21MBOE/day which would mean there is/is expected to be a massive increase in the demand/supply balance and therefore a massive iuncrease in the price of oil.
Wow these numbers seem massively inconsistent with EIA or virturally entirely all the "expert" oil analysists forecasts or even the general markets predictive value. Mskes me, and anyone else, who has the capacity to objectively review massive amounts of information from various sources and asses their credibility, what is reasonablely expected in terms of future crude prices and therefore equities, especialy leveraged ones like BTE, should be in the future to make profitable comtemporary investment decisions:
An objective investor would ask:
How was this figure determined?
What are the assumptions?
At what point in time is this supply/.demand imbalance expected?
How do these numbers compare to the concensus view?
What are the self-serving biases of Vitol that may explain thier massive contrarian view?
What is the accuracy of historical predictions of vitol?
Maybe blackgoldbull or capitulation can answer some of the questions a reasonable suscessful investor would ask when presented with such copntrarian data? I won't hold my breath.
At the end of the day somebody will be right somebody will be wrong. Hedge your bets according to your own assesment of the information that is avaliable and the risks you can tolerate.
Almost every canadian E&P oil producer is on the path to bankruptcy based on current spot prices, it's simply a matter of time. Equity holders are last in line for the proceeds of spoils. TheCompanies that had there sp drop disproportionally more are the ones the market believes are most likely to go bankrupt. Look at BTE versus other oil co's to asses what the market believes.
A 90+ percent drop in sp over 1 year.
Then ask yourself is the market right or wrong? Then decide whether BTE is a good investment when you consider the risk/reward.