RE:for those that would like to readGreat stuff:
so asset sales are neutral to the oil price, lower capex means price increase down the road, but the wild card is their frigging debt and their increased propensity to hedge production that comes with it?
So they keep producing to pay interest/coupons, and they keep hedging at lower prices just to get some revenue stability. Not to mention state owned firms in Russia/Brazil/China actually borrowed so they can pay fat dividends to their governments, but now have to keep pumping just to pay their debt obligations.
Well I hear Russia can't roll its debt at these prices in 2017.
CLEARLY THIS MEANS THAT DEBT HAS TO BLOW UP and turn into equity, but every regulator/bank out there fears contagion into other sectors of the credit markets, and they are keeping these firms alive as zombies by not yanking their lines of credit.