RE:Seeking AlphaPart of the problem is the stock is mispriced. If you look at the book value of the stock it is around the $3.50 - $3.80 range. Oil is down hurting the share price, and the recent spat with the Albanian goverment has taken it down even further.
The problem for Shell for instance is they can't make an offer even 40% above the current share price because when you do the math on the proven and probable reserves, analysts and the rest of the market would be screaming about the 'fair value'. So as a result the market would drive the share price up on Shell to where it should/would be trading at. So they are smart not to rock the boat unnecessarily. And I am sure Shell would want to have things stabilize. Letting the stock recover won't kill them. In fact, it may allow them to get a better price.
Who knows, maybe Shell paid off a government official to start the dispute in order to create some weakness so they could take run at BNK. But the problem with trying to lowball BNK is they are not hurting. You lowball a potential take out target when they are hurting financially and can't refuse your offer. BNK can. They have a solid balance sheet even in this environment. And recent news says they are thinking of expanding (or already have) into Hungary. Once again I will also remind people that they instituted a poison pill quite a long time ago. So that is a thorn in the side of potential buyers.