RE:RE:IEA Medium Term Oil Market reportDoug, US shale has not been at 1,500 rigs for a long time now, yet production just keeps on keeping on. Hence, and this has been stated many times on this board and in the media, rig counts ARE NOT a good indicator of US shale production, and they never have been. What it fails to account for are monsterous efficiencies in costs for producing wells as well as technological improvements. The numbers do, in fact, speak for themselves, and the numbers are telling us that oil production has only slightly declined over the past 18 months (miniscule would be a better word). Everything else being equal, that is, if the major national oil producers do not intervene, the world will be awash in oil throughout 2016 and will only begin to balance through supply and demand in 2017. The only way that the cost of oil moves higher in 2016 is if all the players agree to cut back production. This idea that you have that supply will dry up on its own in 2016 does not reflect what is going on in the market. Supply IS NOT coming off and THAT is the problem. So the bet/risk now of being invested in the O&G sector is if you believe the Saudi's and Russians and Iraqis and Iranians and the rest of OPEC can broker a deal to reduce production AND how that might affect the renewed investment in US shale. There are no easy fixes here and to suggest otherwise is foolish.