RE:RE:RE:IEA Medium Term Oil Market reportUS Rig counts started to fall about a year ago. They let the fields flow until they are marginally uneconomic. US shale oil feilds have a very short lifespan, many about 1.5 years, not much have more than 3. That's why we have a delay between rig counts and pruduction numbers, and now those numbers started to decline seriousely since a few weeks and particularely last week. At current pace, US cuts will offset Iran new oil in about 8 - 10 monts. Russia and SA are a full trottle now, and both EIA and IEA predict a world demand growth of about 1.2 mm b/d in 2016. The supply/demand equation could reverse somewhere in 2016 even without a producers deal, which would just accelarate things. And when the world will realise it, it will take more than a year to put most closed projects back online, when banks are willing to go again...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/overview.pdf
Scroll down to Petroleum Supply section, Domestic Production, Week Ago Difference. That's what many big players are looking at, more than inventories.
This time we could be in for the good ride, all imho.