GuidanceYear end results are due out next Tuesday, March 1. It will be interesting to see how close Avigilon comes to their guidance for the year (Revenue between $358 million and $368 million, Non-IFRS Adjusted Earnings Per Share between $0.76 and $0.82). This is the first time AVO has given guidance.
At the end of the last quarter when they first gave this guidance, sales for the year were already $260 million. That means that they are expecting sales to be between $97.7 million to $107.7 million for the fourth quarter. Up to the end of the third quarter, EPS for the year were $0.50. That means they are expecting EPS of $0.26 to $0.32 for the fourth quarter.
If they hit the lower sales figure ($97.7 million), that will be a 3% increase over the record third quarter sales of $95.0 million. If they hit the higher figure (107.7 million), that will be a 12% increase.
Their target for Dec 31, 2016 is to be at a forward run rate of $500 million sales per year. That means that they will have to hit sales of $125 million before or in the last quarter of this year. That’s about 25% higher than their expectations for Dec 31, 2015. Given that the year over year increase in sales was 34% at the end of the last quarter, it appears that the 5 year target of $500 million is achievable.
Nonetheless, I wish there was more attention to the bottom line. An EPS of $0.76 to $0.82 for the year is about equivalent to the trailing 4 period average.
The fact that they have finally given guidance surprises (and pleases) me. Now, if they will only surprise me with a small dividend!