RE:Rigs will be back when barrel is at $38 - next yearthe shale drilling will not coming back in any force until plus 50 wti.
they will lock up hedges for protect future cf, and start paying down debt and keep costrs down.
don't forget the minute they start drilling en force then the costs will start to go much higher as there will be many less service companies out there and the costs will go up.
it's in everyone's best interest to keep the rigs quiet until much higher prices.
of course there will be a few E&P's that have good balance sheets and might take advantage of lower costs and lock up a bunch of drills, but this will be the minority not the majority.
there is just too much debt out there and really why drill your best plays and sell them at the cheapest prices??
think about it, especailly when you can't raise equity or get credit.
the shale industry was build on huge debt and now that huge debt is coming how to roost.
your thesis is flawed my anti-ideaman bashing friend