RE:Once in a lifetime investment? Hi Wolfy,
All the assumptions that lead to the target are written in the analysis. I've used the numbers and the timing presented by the direction of ProMetic. And in doubt I used the most conservative figure.
If you don't agree with timing or price figure, just tell me which, if it make sense, I'd be happy to improve the analysis like I've already done following Scott and others hints.
No business come with no risk. I've been saying the PPPS one comes with the risks of a meat-processing factory. You still need to have the thing approved by the FDA, face plant contamination risk, etc. (And I'm glad we have 3-4 plants to limit that risk). My opinion, and that of many longs around here, is that the clinical trail risk of failure are as close to 0 as possible. There are still big clinical trial delay risks though. I'd be interested to hear about what you think are the risks. And how it impacts the figures I provided in my analysis. :-)
Ah, and of course 4050 bears at least a 60% risk of clinical failure at this point, on top of all the other risks, that's why I don't consider it investment-worthy, per se. Only a Gigabonus.
The other large risk is purely financial. As of now (and until somewhere next year) ProMetic's not cash-flow positive. That means it will have to use the markets (or deals) to continue to develop the broad pipeline, until Pg-CPD is approved. Markets can turn ugly as we've seen in the last months.
It's still my opinion that the small amount of money required (max 50 M$) to reach financial independance (positive cashflow) will be raised easily. It would cost the shareholders 3% of the stock at current prices, and less than 10% if some Depression gets so ugly that our stock drops to below 1$. There's some intelligent money out there that doesn't need my analysis to figure out that it's entirely worth it. (Yeah I'm talking about Thomvest)
Once those 30M$, worst case 50M$ are found (deals or market), it's "what gets in the PPPS pipeline gets out after some times". You know, that's the definition of a pipeline hey ? ;-)
My valuation update have multiplied and added the numbers provided by ProMetic to give us all an idea of what's to be expected out of that PPPS pipeline. After reasonnable delay, considering the orphan drug nature of some of the proteins in that pipeline, and the eagerness of the FDA to see those hit the market and the patients stopping to die.
It's not because it's quite a big jump from 2-3$ to 75$ / share that it won't happen. For that, the maths or the numbers at stake would have to be proven wrong. And I'm thoroughly open to any correction proposal that make sense, I'd be more than pleased to write a Valuation Update #4, if it brings us closer to reality.
:-)
FD