BTE has Almost Filled the GapMany of the oil Co's ,large, small, upstream and or downstream traded in lock step with WTI. If oil went up or down X% the equities went up/down regardless of how levereged or not that particular company is/was. However post the oil route some companies decoupled from WTI more then others especially levereged ones like BTE, PRE, TBE, BNP for example. Large integrated ones were not punished like oil or levereged E&P cos.
Right now the seasonality trade is in full swing which almost always starts at the end of Feb.. The exact same thing happened last year when investors piled back into the Oil cos in anticipation of a WTI recovery given the driving season would be ramping up and much higher gasoline demand is expected.. It happened last year and it will more then likely happen this year. It's happening right now in lumber Co's too which I own (IFP this year) and am riding that seasonal wave. Here's the oil data from 20 years combined:
https://www.equityclock.com/charts/crude-oil-futures-cl-seasonal-chart/
Here's the seasonality of BTE which almost exactly matches WTI:
https://charts.equityclock.com/baytex-energy-trust-tsebte-seasonal-chart
Notice the double bottom at the first of the average of 20 years of data. Look familiar to this year and last year?
That's what traders look for long term trends like this and 2016 is following the historicat trend exactly. So expect a rally in oil until early June then reassess the fundamenal situation. I expect 2016 to be different given the huge Capex cuts but Iran/demand/the global economy are wild cards.
As an immediate consideration take a look at this chart I made which goes back to Sept 2015 and compared WTI (black) a leveraged Oil Co. BTE (blue), and a large integrated Suncor (green). Notice BTE was grossly decoupled from WTI in Jan 2016 with a 6 month 75% decline versus a 35% decline in WTI. Now BTE has almost caught up to oil only 5% away from WTI over a 6 month time span when they traded in lock step.
https://i.imgur.com/Ld04zrT.png