Correction to my previous postFergus thanks a LXE poster for pointing out my error in the Taleb quote. I resubmit the original post with the correction.
Nassim Taleb is a successful Wall Street options trader and one of the few that never “blew up”. Quite a record when one considers a career that dates well back into the 1990’s.
I offer this quote from his book Fooled by Randomness, Page 232, where he discusses “noise” versus “signal” in the marketplace. I think it has relevance to LXE.
The quote……. “For example, after registering a profit of $100,000 on a given strategy, I may assign a 2% probability to the hypothesis of the strategy being profitable and 98% probability to the hypothesis that the performance may be the result of mere noise. A gain of $1 million on the other hand, certifies that the strategy is a profitable one, with a 99% probability”.
LXE’s move in the last 3 weeks seems to fit the Taleb “MO”.
I won’t be adding to my position, but I will certainly be letting it ride. Why mess it up? Besides there’s always that niggling 1% screw factor to consider. And let’s not forget that old farmer’s adage “Well bought is half sold”.