(Kitco News) - March 28 – An early dip toward the psychologically and technically significant level in gold at $1,200 early on Monday was met with bargain hunting and fresh buying support. Gold has trimmed the majority of its overnight weakness and has pushed back toward unchanged.
The gold market remains in a consolidative and corrective phase following the blistering rally move, which propelled Comex June gold futures from the 2015 year-end settlement at $1,061 per ounce to the 2016 high at $1,287.80, hit on March 11.
Monday's early selling approached major 38.2% Fibonacci retracement support (of the Dec. 31-March 11 rally move), which comes in around $1,201 per ounce. See Figure 1 below. That zone nearly coincides exactly with psychological support at the $1,200 area.
Bargain hunters emerged on the dip to support gold, which is a positive near-term signal. The gold market climbed sharply and quickly during the first two months of the year and recent profit-taking by short-term traders has weighed on the gold market.
June gold futures are currently testing 40-day moving average support, seen in red. The gold contract has been trading above its 40-day moving average since Jan. 4, and that zone around $1,222 is an important zone for short-term traders to monitor. A sustained recovery above the 40-day moving average line following the brief break would be a positive near-term trend signal.
Gold Stocks Still Outperform
In the equity arena, gold stocks are still one of the biggest sub-sector winners in the S&P 500 year-to-date. Take a look at the numbers at various S&P 500 sectors –all numbers are through March 24.
Data source: S&P Capital IQ
Bottom line: The gold market has been a top performer in 2016. After parabolic moves, all markets need to rest, consolidate, build value at the new higher price levels and simply gather strength for the next trend move. The $1,200 level is an important support level for gold in the short-term. If that holds firm, gold will remain in the current $1,200-$1,287 consolidation range. If the $1,200 floor cracks, gold will be vulnerable to a deeper correction, with the 50% Fibonacci support zone seen at the $1,175 area.
By Kira Brecht, contributing to Kitco News;
Follow her on Twitter @KiraBrecht